Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b0ed2240b8f270f6e5aea4068da7237c8f19adbec8b47b9c76be89fd48be558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 468$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 356.65$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 10c | 277.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.06 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 42c | 235.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbd…e8e7backed No | 10c | 230.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 12c | 164.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed No | 11c | 151.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 74c | 135.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes | 69c | 86.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 30c | 83.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 61.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 70c | 60.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef1…e6e7backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 49.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 79c | 46.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 70c | 38.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 43c | 36.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 49c | 35.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 61c | 34.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24d…6357backed No | 70c | 33.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 33c | 31.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 46c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ccddbacked No | 67c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 74c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 56c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 75c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.