TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
illwillof illwill, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$233,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,379 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff34…694bbacked illwill49c7,399$3,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,746.931,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked Virtus.pro39c6,850$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.7334559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill39c5,222$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,167.955,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed illwill51c5,207$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.851,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Virtus.pro63c4,951$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.6436453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked illwill62c4,354$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.222623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-59.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed illwill37c4,275$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.131,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked illwill47c3,669$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.891,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed illwill39c3,454$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.072,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed illwill42c3,171$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8391,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked Virtus.pro50c2,600$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30043951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro47c2,536$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.855,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro38c2,495$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.415,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed illwill56c2,000$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.752,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Virtus.pro43c1,550$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.933,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Virtus.pro66c1,533$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.992,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Virtus.pro47c1,401$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.9414137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Virtus.pro60c1,381$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.722044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Virtus.pro39c1,317$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.1524746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed illwill18c1,260$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.9525747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Virtus.pro55c1,248$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.6578043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe00a…d1f4backed illwill41c1,245$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.32744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Virtus.pro25c1,243$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.6583652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed illwill20c1,170$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.5862248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed illwill27c1,160$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.29736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5076…711abacked Virtus.pro33c1,103$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.14254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Virtus.pro54c1,041$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.1160032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Virtus.pro29c1,040$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.1680942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed illwill17c1,017$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.121040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Virtus.pro63c1,011$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6361,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed illwill37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63026155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked illwill38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6209160.4%55 W · 36 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Virtus.pro1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked illwill41c987.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.3219548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Virtus.pro61c891.79$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.241,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Virtus.pro29c886$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.0659343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked illwill46c872.96$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.792,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked illwill68c812.72$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8129154%157 W · 134 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed illwill40c806.71$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.3750051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1529…a7babacked Virtus.pro62c789.05$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked Virtus.pro21c776.47$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.436645.6%167 W · 199 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed illwill52c762.03$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.4343544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Virtus.pro26c724$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.442,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Virtus.pro18c723.9$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2443237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Virtus.pro63c640.94$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.062,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a9e…a24bbacked illwill53c632.44$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.95188.2%45 W · 6 L+12.9wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+40.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed illwill29c603$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.121949.8%109 W · 110 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Virtus.pro36c574.45$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9566446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Virtus.pro22c573.31$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8414339.9%57 W · 86 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7add…7a7bbacked Virtus.pro60c572.47$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.366245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Virtus.pro53c560.32$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.362,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed illwill38c530.5$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.9166851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed illwill63c530.4$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.622,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed illwill39c519.56$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.532,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Virtus.pro66c515.14$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.772,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed Virtus.pro60c510$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30620562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked illwill80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10011758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Virtus.pro61c493.99$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.277940.5%32 W · 47 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed illwill61c491.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.7411354%61 W · 52 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Virtus.pro36c486.07$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.862,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Virtus.pro61c459.02$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2804440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked Virtus.pro22c456.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014543.4%63 W · 82 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Virtus.pro30c434.08$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9948635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd976…7636backed illwill78c431.59$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8211155%61 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4063…ea8dbacked Virtus.pro27c428.83$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.38344.6%37 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Virtus.pro62c399.99$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.3391945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…5e03backed Virtus.pro64c390.63$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503234.4%11 W · 21 L-6.5wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-40.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0a8b…6a9fbacked Virtus.pro62c388.24$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.651275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed Virtus.pro37c383.69$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14244244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked illwill70c370.06$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0227549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Virtus.pro62c359.53$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1115743.9%69 W · 88 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Virtus.pro60c340.69$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.514,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5a…ab91backed illwill37c332.8$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.591050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Virtus.pro61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006965.2%45 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Virtus.pro9c326$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4957935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed illwill58c319.16$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.931,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Virtus.pro37c318.06$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.862,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Virtus.pro9c315$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.726634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed illwill63c313.96$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.169137.4%34 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Virtus.pro27c313.88$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.191,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Virtus.pro32c310$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.227544%121 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked illwill40c306.1$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.442133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Virtus.pro66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Virtus.pro59c294.14$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.871,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed Virtus.pro44c280.33$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0330155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Virtus.pro43c275.51$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.173,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked illwill61c258.2$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.738844.3%172 W · 216 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d4…9c83backed illwill12c250$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.082128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Virtus.pro54c247$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.492,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Virtus.pro58c241.1$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8417142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed illwill63c238.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8419340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Virtus.pro35c232.65$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3696543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4704…515ebacked Virtus.pro43c227.44$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.837140.7%151 W · 220 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Virtus.pro65c226.1$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.961127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked illwill73c226.03$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0344675.3%336 W · 110 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed illwill22c226.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3968659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed illwill37c223.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.088143.2%35 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked Virtus.pro64c222$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0831647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7055…49bbbacked Virtus.pro30c220.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5914549.7%72 W · 73 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Virtus.pro61c214.75$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13144343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.