CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe85743ee51635b27860af35a50533010395bb388eea7579fa5a73530a4e3a73f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof Virtus.pro, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill | 65c | 2,799$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.31 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Virtus.pro | 62c | 1,691$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.39 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Virtus.pro | 35c | 1,499$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.22 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 868.26$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 744.42$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.55 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 651.4$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked illwill | 64c | 619.28$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.94 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Virtus.pro | 36c | 591.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.03 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed illwill | 64c | 562.57$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.63 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked illwill | 65c | 551.29$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.95 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed illwill | 66c | 350.05$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed illwill | 67c | 306.93$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Virtus.pro | 62c | 301.9$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Virtus.pro | 36c | 300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked illwill | 57c | 155$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…54a4backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 118.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed illwill | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…afe0backed Virtus.pro | 32c | 88.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed Virtus.pro | 32c | 88.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 198 | 40.9%81 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Virtus.pro | 32c | 68.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked illwill | 68c | 68.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed illwill | 66c | 58.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed illwill | 67c | 47.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed illwill | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed illwill | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Virtus.pro | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed illwill | 65c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…048ebacked illwill | 66c | 15.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed illwill | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked illwill | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stageillwill won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.