TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leo Teamof KOLESIE, Leo Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$223,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa927…8d9fbacked KOLESIE31c21,254$6,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,524.2534559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Leo Team42c10,919$4,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,375.542,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Leo Team42c9,687$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,591.595,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed KOLESIE0c6,911$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.212867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed KOLESIE30c6,345$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.51,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3c…d370backed KOLESIE60c6,056$3,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,614.492347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Leo Team42c5,801$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,364.5284958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbbb…ae06backed KOLESIE3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KOLESIE0c4,788$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.552,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed KOLESIE58c4,710$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.3116351.5%84 W · 79 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked KOLESIE58c4,523$2,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.217250%36 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed KOLESIE32c4,500$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.9722253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Leo Team36c4,384$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.7235839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked KOLESIE24c4,336$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.451,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed KOLESIE28c3,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked KOLESIE54c2,908$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.4520944.5%93 W · 116 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Leo Team49c2,898$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.9865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab9…d821backed KOLESIE59c2,539$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.54055%22 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked KOLESIE54c2,369$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.551,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Leo Team54c2,310$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.6763541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Leo Team41c2,263$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.3966851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed KOLESIE71c2,250$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.52254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Leo Team45c2,164$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.132,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Leo Team44c2,101$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.1215732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28c0…8eeebacked KOLESIE59c2,063$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.941850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed KOLESIE33c1,969$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.6230155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Leo Team41c1,938$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.485,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KOLESIE42c1,812$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.062,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked KOLESIE59c1,800$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Leo Team33c1,783$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.394,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Leo Team42c1,700$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.62,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Leo Team39c1,643$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.3762248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32a8…3fb6backed KOLESIE21c1,618$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.042352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x175c…af21backed Leo Team46c1,605$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed Leo Team68c1,544$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9210551.4%54 W · 51 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc8…09e5backed KOLESIE57c1,398$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.92360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Leo Team45c1,392$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.4720755.1%114 W · 93 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Leo Team54c1,296$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.267447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed KOLESIE58c1,259$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73217948%86 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Leo Team54c1,191$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.615,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed KOLESIE5c1,170$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.857716.9%13 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked Leo Team42c1,138$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.5413350.4%67 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked KOLESIE68c1,098$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.5635460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f9b…efabbacked KOLESIE61c1,090$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.992657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed KOLESIE55c1,008$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.724746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Leo Team74c1,008$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6262738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked KOLESIE59c936$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.728333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed Leo Team43c930.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.237548%36 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf6…2d98backed Leo Team39c796.77$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.921866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+43%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Leo Team39c747.18$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.1814042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26fe…5a7ebacked KOLESIE59c742$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.781070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbecc…5672backed KOLESIE40c731.47$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.823531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed Leo Team42c714.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2922740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Leo Team56c656.89$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.032744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Leo Team34c642.99$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.414,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked Leo Team56c640.7$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.0516355.8%91 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Leo Team40c627.11$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Leo Team32c616.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.1416146%74 W · 87 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked KOLESIE33c613.58$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.641,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Leo Team40c600.99$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.837,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Leo Team40c600.27$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.326,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aaa…e611backed Leo Team42c590.48$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.483240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…47fcbacked KOLESIE50c589.53$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.538942.7%38 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0acb…05c2backed Leo Team41c572.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.071070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed KOLESIE57c567.38$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3268253.7%44 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed KOLESIE60c565.34$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.220562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c7…38e1backed KOLESIE42c544.22$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2315547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed KOLESIE58c523.29$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.513040%12 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x633f…2104backed KOLESIE58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed KOLESIE58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked KOLESIE58c508$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6413043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Leo Team59c500$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.5738037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Leo Team33c500$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3341,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Leo Team41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2957647.4%36 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f0…aeb6backed Leo Team41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f8…fe20backed KOLESIE60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Leo Team43c499.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.992347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked KOLESIE57c499.99$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.993461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked KOLESIE57c499.98$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9914044.3%62 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Leo Team30c493.53$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.5316550.3%83 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked KOLESIE67c490.66$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.746647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f5…09ddbacked KOLESIE4c476.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.14339.1%3 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked KOLESIE44c468.1$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.454,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Leo Team40c467.19$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1968659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x824f…b105backed Leo Team43c465.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.831850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Leo Team54c459.25$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.253357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Leo Team35c456.48$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.481,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb7e…9546backed Leo Team32c448$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.644146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623d…3aeebacked KOLESIE60c447.87$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010137.6%38 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked KOLESIE3c444.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3616311.7%19 W · 144 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c5…8a63backed Leo Team55c443.35$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked KOLESIE63c436.71$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2310262.7%64 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1eb…52c6backed Leo Team70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.57988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcf8…94b6backed KOLESIE57c422.52$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Leo Team43c408.58$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.5323038.3%88 W · 142 L-15.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Leo Team44c404.45$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.4713051.5%67 W · 63 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Leo Team42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23226155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4a…1c05backed KOLESIE57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2282222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed KOLESIE52c395.96$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.32,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed KOLESIE58c389.91$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.158540%34 W · 51 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.