TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUBYof ex-RUBY, RUSTEC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,597 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY64c1,924$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.895,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e65…694fbacked RUSTEC34c1,689$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.333438.2%13 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed RUSTEC35c1,566$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.241,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked RUSTEC42c1,402$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.633,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed RUSTEC46c1,400$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.0123333%77 W · 156 L-22.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed RUSTEC30c1,049$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.985,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked RUSTEC36c989.5$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2327753.8%149 W · 128 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-RUBY62c983.51$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.974,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed RUSTEC45c816.61$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37022253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ex-RUBY64c809.16$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.366851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f8…fe20backed RUSTEC62c799.98$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.991457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed ex-RUBY64c758.34$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.362350.9%317 W · 306 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed RUSTEC34c727.93$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.5880942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked RUSTEC36c694.44$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25052636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed ex-RUBY58c692.58$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.4857641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1eb…52c6backed ex-RUBY65c682.46$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.46988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed RUSTEC54c671.5$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.866,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b4…fc3dbacked RUSTEC67c623.21$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked ex-RUBY34c588.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.3833060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked RUSTEC25c576.53$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9460032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed RUSTEC37c559.98$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1988242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6061…5090backed RUSTEC38c554.45$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2122330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked ex-RUBY66c553.33$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1322754.2%123 W · 104 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked RUSTEC20c545.16$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.653,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed ex-RUBY71c544.34$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.810643.4%46 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed ex-RUBY67c539.13$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7343544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked ex-RUBY65c538.46$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.466965.2%45 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…76eebacked ex-RUBY34c504.97$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+198.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked RUSTEC34c502$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6846447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed RUSTEC27c500.94$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.22,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed ex-RUBY65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+34.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed RUSTEC66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33028549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf7…0e79backed RUSTEC45c427.11$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.591241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e8…0105backed ex-RUBY45c409.85$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.456350.8%32 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed RUSTEC69c390.38$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27040449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb0…6197backed ex-RUBY56c366.98$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.878958.4%52 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY50c345.78$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.587,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked RUSTEC20c344$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.182,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked ex-RUBY30c330$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23158149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked ex-RUBY54c317.15$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.2262738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93ed…a4cbbacked ex-RUBY67c295.75$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7526048.8%127 W · 133 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x472c…eaeabacked RUSTEC27c287$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.346825%17 W · 51 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed ex-RUBY65c286$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.174054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed RUSTEC36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7223146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-RUBY51c273.56$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.454,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed RUSTEC65c260$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8511958.8%70 W · 49 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed ex-RUBY33c257.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3748635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9de…fc3cbacked RUSTEC34c254.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa388…d4adbacked ex-RUBY58c251$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.42922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-47.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf059…e97cbacked RUSTEC62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2744…b1e3backed RUSTEC41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x211a…6ef4backed ex-RUBY34c249.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUBY64c248.59$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.492,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd0…1f67backed RUSTEC39c237.5$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed RUSTEC27c228.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.462,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed ex-RUBY50c226.32$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5873948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…e0d7backed ex-RUBY34c220.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5921141.7%88 W · 123 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce38…2513backed RUSTEC78c217.75$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.112770.4%19 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed ex-RUBY40c208$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4264046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked ex-RUBY54c205.31$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5154543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d65…6a04backed ex-RUBY48c199.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1048542.4%36 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUBY63c199.26$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.222,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked RUSTEC34c190.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.823,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed RUSTEC68c171.27$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.839552.6%50 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed RUSTEC36c164.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.329736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed RUSTEC42c155.77$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.862,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed ex-RUBY31c150$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.539440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed ex-RUBY67c148.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7314641.1%60 W · 86 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked ex-RUBY64c138.05$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.75759.6%34 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ex-RUBY51c135$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.742,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed RUSTEC37c131.18$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.771,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff5a…ab91backed ex-RUBY32c119.06$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.961050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed RUSTEC43c114$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.957641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ex-RUBY49c111.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3279951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0153…bad3backed ex-RUBY51c111.01$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.244055%22 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked ex-RUBY36c110$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.11,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x127f…0b39backed RUSTEC65c101.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked ex-RUBY34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.998333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed RUSTEC40c98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0432139.9%128 W · 193 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe83…82a8backed RUSTEC65c92.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4610775.7%81 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca8…7e67backed ex-RUBY68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.112343.9%54 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed ex-RUBY53c84.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.896543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83b…0ed8backed ex-RUBY42c84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.01742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1d…7ff3backed ex-RUBY67c82.09$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0917654.5%96 W · 80 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x120e…6850backed ex-RUBY38c79.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.163847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed RUSTEC41c75.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.714839.9%59 W · 89 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUBY46c74.36$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.025,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce8…75f2backed RUSTEC65c72.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked RUSTEC41c69.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.691,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked ex-RUBY70c69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.726546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed RUSTEC33c65.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0819850.5%100 W · 98 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed RUSTEC63c65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6952369.4%363 W · 160 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked ex-RUBY65c64.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3949149.9%245 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked RUSTEC23c63.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb347…84b4backed RUSTEC50c60.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304273.8%31 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed RUSTEC34c58.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b1…4625backed ex-RUBY71c56.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1052…441bbacked RUSTEC75c54.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.59567.4%64 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed ex-RUBY45c48.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.84259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked ex-RUBY30c48.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0352645.1%237 W · 289 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.