Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5f2092477f070c8fa6feb11a080436a47144a49665519b787d0f2a4fb27b82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 65c | 4,659$3,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.03 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 28c | 4,118$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,965.16 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 77c | 3,215$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.83 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 38c | 2,629$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.77 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 20c | 2,014$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.27 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 80c | 1,097$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 50c | 1,036$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.89 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 17c | 845.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.62 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 17c | 667.61$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.61 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 44c | 619.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.59 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 609.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.4 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 559.54$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.66 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 78c | 500.33$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 76c | 493.86$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 493.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.47 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 43c | 488.18$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.66 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 392.37$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.81 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 378.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.57 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 16c | 355.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.39 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 18c | 352.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.04 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 305.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.11 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 300$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.2 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…a089backed Yes | 60c | 300$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 225$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 213.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.01 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 10c | 211.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.56 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…0be5backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 15c | 166$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.47 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 150$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b1…acb7backed No | 10c | 146.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +915.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 12c | 136$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked No | 40c | 129.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 18c | 125$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 19c | 122.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 116$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 21c | 102$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 21c | 97.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…9cb8backed Yes | 79c | 88.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 16c | 84.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 18c | 81.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 19c | 64.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked No | 39c | 61.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 49.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…450fbacked Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 35.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38f…6f13backed Yes | 77c | 33.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 46c | 31.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 46c | 29.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed Yes | 51c | 24.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Yes | 62c | 22.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yes | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1500…2105backed Yes | 76c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…6229backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Yes | 62c | 16.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 14.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.