Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ea4d103da81ed6b7b68464edc0d57336ba99791ddafd732fdddd5f07627f28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 25c | 3,287$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.07 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed Yes | 20c | 1,821$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.35 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 14c | 1,800$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.55 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 16c | 1,082$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.79 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 6c | 706.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.35 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 528.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.91 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 528$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.61 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 509.51$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.77 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 400.36$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.57 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 37c | 325.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 23c | 215.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.82 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 185$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 151.68$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 26c | 104.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 45c | 103.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 33c | 100.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 83.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 61c | 79.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 79c | 76.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 60c | 73.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 65.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 61c | 50.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 49.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 61c | 34.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b80fbacked Yes | 39c | 32.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 25.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed No | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked No | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.