Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d0508a1db9891f73bd84d2d332773e9f40194718f1c746b29405045b17a7da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 5,933$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…9712backed Yes | 39c | 5,497$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.85 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 43c | 2,961$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.25 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 61c | 2,685$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.39 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 14c | 2,231$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.92 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3553…db71backed Yes | 69c | 2,183$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 40c | 1,580$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 12c | 1,574$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed Yes | 3c | 1,363$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b136backed Yes | 1c | 1,281$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,143$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 33c | 860.39$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.48 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 836.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…6267backed Yes | 3c | 807$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 571$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.64 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 60c | 540.54$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 43c | 489.25$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 4c | 488.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked No | 46c | 480$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.01 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 71c | 361.8$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceba…3e18backed Yes | 53c | 320$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 51c | 185.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1169backed No | 52c | 159.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…2debbacked Yes | 38c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 53c | 142.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 131.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 121.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 11c | 112.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…8fa1backed Yes | 28c | 107.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 46c | 107.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…6c16backed Yes | 38c | 104.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 31c | 100.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 20c | 79.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 51c | 71.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…b1debacked No | 51c | 70.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 68.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 67.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 55c | 61.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 57.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed Yes | 32c | 33.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed No | 46c | 31.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…1b6ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…107abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 18.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…4152backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 135m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?Yes won
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 130m and 135m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.