Movies · resolved market
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8191e63ad4e53ff68f08bd0f7986e4dfe6019288cc5bb9588d4b07f1512ee662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked No | 4c | 1,994$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…2345backed No | 12c | 1,966$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 6c | 1,047$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 60c | 813.35$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.91 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 701.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 5c | 650.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 7c | 602.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 72c | 574.99$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 5c | 526$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 16c | 520$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 6c | 488$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 66c | 485$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.41 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 44c | 482.71$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.9 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 9c | 422.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 17c | 420.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 39c | 340$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed Yes | 65c | 309.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 289.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 19c | 274.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 228$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…0accbacked No | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…c218backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8843…d4c5backed No | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 190.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 189.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 186.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 68c | 146.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 68c | 132.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…b7e7backed No | 40c | 125.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 25c | 115.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 23c | 111.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 60c | 107.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 43c | 106.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 80c | 104.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…9423backed No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 41c | 80.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 59c | 77.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 67.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 27c | 66.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 70c | 60.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 27c | 52.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…6b29backed No | 34c | 50.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…705bbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…8dcabacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 23c | 48.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…c6dabacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…a1a7backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…0ac8backed Yes | 73c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 61c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…7c36backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m?this page
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 58m and 64m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 64m and 70m?No won
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 70m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.