Movies · resolved market
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204266528664e23d76b74cfd83341c5aadd5ec9715c0a9be485c7a1b9b051a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 23c | 2,250$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.74 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 26c | 1,649$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.28 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 42c | 1,132$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.21 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 1,015$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 34c | 775.9$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.6 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 767.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 37c | 699.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.99 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 610.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 516.24$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.92 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 29c | 503.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.9 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 13c | 498.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 489$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 55c | 449.56$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.06 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…42cabacked No | 4c | 447.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 55c | 435.64$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 419.94$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.14 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 394.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.41 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 49c | 391.08$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.61 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 338.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 29c | 328$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 309.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 308$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 10c | 267.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 259.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 13c | 222.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 32c | 208.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 73c | 188.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 183$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…54d7backed Yes | 30c | 182.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 167.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 21c | 166.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 56c | 138.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…9cb8backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 132.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 123$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 11c | 117.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 115$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 28c | 109.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 103.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 18c | 103.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…32a8backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…63d3backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 67c | 95.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 70c | 64.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 54c | 55.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2922…b3cebacked No | 25c | 54.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 37c | 54.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…d92abacked No | 29c | 51.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…b9acbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 75c | 43.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…c6e3backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes | 73c | 33.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 27.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 66c | 27.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…4815backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 64c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?this page
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 34m?No won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?No won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?No won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.