Movies · resolved market
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25ca4fc73273e5d4b6bea24b4400fdfb63a46948e5a3f1873e861f1cb08aa64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 9c | 6,957$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.42 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 6c | 2,718$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 7c | 1,637$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 72c | 1,602$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.68 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,447$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.65 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 11c | 1,379$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…6c16backed Yes | 3c | 1,062$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 821$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 75c | 765$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 16c | 717$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 3c | 673.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 669.41$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 18c | 636.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 13c | 582.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…54d7backed No | 56c | 555$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 9c | 554.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 28c | 500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 79c | 439.77$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 427.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 15c | 413.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 64c | 350$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 15c | 325.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 8c | 318.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 18c | 290.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…681abacked Yes | 24c | 258.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 230$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 71c | 230$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed Yes | 13c | 226.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 221.57$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…bd5ebacked Yes | 26c | 210$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 176$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes | 22c | 154.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 9c | 143.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 20c | 143$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 20c | 129.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed No | 46c | 120.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 14c | 118$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 15c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…450fbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes | 59c | 79.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 19c | 74.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 20c | 69.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 59.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ad…6a6bbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…8068backed Yes | 22c | 52.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 70c | 44.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…f923backed No | 80c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…6229backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…43bfbacked Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?this page
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 34m?No won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?No won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?Yes won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.