Movies · resolved market
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7258282d80b75d4eb08b2d1d65dc165031019e88712fd91b37f482a2d4056c2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 4c | 4,065$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.5 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 2,356$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.82 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,850$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.5 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,539$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 56c | 1,466$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.95 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…19d7backed Yes | 2c | 643.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 13c | 532$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 430.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 405.41$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.53 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 27c | 295$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…54d7backed Yes | 18c | 254.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 36c | 197.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 197.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 39c | 192.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 192$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 47c | 163.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 161.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 73c | 143.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 75c | 121.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 114$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 91.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 58c | 90.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 59c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 70c | 59.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 21c | 50.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…208abacked Yes | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 44c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…8068backed Yes | 72c | 27.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1500…2105backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…5a56backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?this page
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 34m?No won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?Yes won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?No won
- Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.