AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x954dfc861d68b894f1e8d8ab2bc88e3cffe09a99f104365216735f6461d88cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5faf…6694backed Yes | 14c | 716.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +633.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 68c | 599.97$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.85 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a08…7852backed No | 8c | 447.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +390.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 35c | 404.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.86 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 35c | 290$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…65ccbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 63c | 88.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 80.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…880bbacked Yes | 67c | 71.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…abafbacked No | 27c | 63.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…67c1backed Yes | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 22c | 58.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 51.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 70c | 19.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?this page
- Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.