Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb8712865e99ddcbba24a81e227e80bf8b83700d197939b93b7eff34d9e4890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 42c | 877.17$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 37c | 838.31$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.79 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 784.25$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.15 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 63c | 601$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.88 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 38c | 594$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.01 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 440$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 420.12$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 400$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…f1dbbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 399.11$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…97c5backed Yes | 28c | 369.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 62c | 299.88$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 40c | 184.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes | 38c | 171.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 159$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 61c | 112$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…a81ebacked No | 60c | 106.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 48c | 94.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 87.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 62.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d9…8196backed Yes | 37c | 61.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 71c | 59.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa851…2313backed Yes | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9260…311cbacked Yes | 38c | 55.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…73d1backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 37c | 37.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed Yes | 38c | 35.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 62c | 33.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 48c | 31.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…2150backed No | 62c | 30.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…c6dabacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?this page
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?Yes won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.