Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef7d1d08556ee90e22dcf41d209414fc8423e3c164c5f7ff1c664548375b0ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 10c | 2,350$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…73d1backed Yes | 14c | 1,459$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.01 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 720.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 13c | 647.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.25 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbc…e435backed Yes | 13c | 337.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 185$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 44c | 175$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 123.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 20c | 121.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes | 15c | 90.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…9f3bbacked Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 20c | 79.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 77.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 69c | 63.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 40c | 59.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 27c | 58.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…97c5backed Yes | 46c | 49.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 35c | 32.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 42c | 31.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?this page
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.