Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d93bbb462bb8b2f27b4ba9ffb4cd3911eac5873cdcda038c889f942734bbc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0778…73d1backed Yes | 7c | 2,085$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 70c | 595$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 16c | 522$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 438.39$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 420.09$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 32c | 313.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 294.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 101.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0799backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f2…c8e6backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?this page
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?Yes won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.