Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf94f3bd13dd1641dbc68da9a6b2bbf28708d94b5446d43f10690854186a7eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 40c | 1,330$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 7c | 1,250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…73d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 784.25$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.67 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 66c | 763.69$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.23 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 440$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…9f3bbacked Yes | 15c | 253.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 155$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…97c5backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 88.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 86.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 60c | 28.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?this page
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Michael Bennet win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?Yes won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.