Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96959858ec7677a582c2a75901464f35915ef8efb6aa9b16064c5a1601603fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 60c | 5,630$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,388.69 | 257 | 43.2%111 W · 146 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.98 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Over | 42c | 797.86$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.86 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 60c | 688.11$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.55 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 40c | 676.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 58c | 606.67$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.87 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 65c | 506.65$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.84 | 1,181 | 66%780 W · 401 L | +70.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 39c | 505.25$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.2 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 39c | 377.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.42 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Over | 73c | 293.82$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 39c | 264.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 40c | 253.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 1,802 | 51.2%923 W · 879 L | +53.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Under | 31c | 253.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Under | 59c | 251.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 59c | 236.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 2,237 | 33.3%745 W · 1,492 L | -71.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under | 31c | 182.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 381 | 48%183 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 40c | 157.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…e450backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Under | 59c | 124.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe7…9323backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Over | 55c | 107.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…0ddcbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 125 | 24%30 W · 95 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,240 | 37.3%836 W · 1,404 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 60c | 84.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 452 | 44.5%201 W · 251 L | -30.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…f793backed Over | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…a6a3backed Over | 42c | 47.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,020 | 30.5%617 W · 1,403 L | -172.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 69c | 43.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 955 | 51.7%494 W · 461 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…81d4backed Under | 60c | 41.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 73.8%48 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d72…2d0bbacked Over | 68c | 39.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 61c | 39.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1,616 | 43.8%708 W · 908 L | -74.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…74f2backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 58c | 36.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 246 | 43.1%106 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba8…d72bbacked Under | 32c | 34.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 40c | 28.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,343 | 49%658 W · 685 L | -26.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Under | 60c | 25.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 348 | 34.2%119 W · 229 L | -39.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…7b79backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 576 | 55.9%322 W · 254 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…caf2backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…5808backed Over | 61c | 16.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?Yes won
- Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)DN SOOPers won
- LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Nongshim Red Force won
- LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 WinnerDN SOOPers won
- LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 WinnerNongshim Red Force won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.