Weather · resolved market
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d2bcb5c86f2cd9ac41f5067b097bc57f123b31c75211757247297696ef7667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 67c | 2,460$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 31c | 1,406$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,371$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…8bb5backed Yes | 35c | 867.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 77c | 506$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 67c | 494.84$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 66c | 463.05$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 459.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 336$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 328.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 65c | 289.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…b08fbacked No | 67c | 274.84$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 272.22$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 32c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Yes | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 29c | 187.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…cd9abacked Yes | 26c | 178.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 78c | 176.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 23c | 170$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 71c | 169.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 41c | 161.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 21c | 141.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 80c | 129.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked No | 71c | 113.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…e42dbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 42c | 92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed No | 63c | 90.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 28c | 73.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 34c | 54.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…6ad1backed No | 72c | 54.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…8404backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5603…7a24backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9c98backed Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 62c | 33.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 73c | 31.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked No | 67c | 25.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…4629backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…9488backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…c253backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…4707backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…5722backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…25d6backed No | 75c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.