Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbbfe3299980506994384990e7bdf350e1c89216ef76963a9f13cf9afa5c192d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 2,907$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.06 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 49c | 2,124$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.41 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 1,695$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 4c | 921.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 609.5$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 569$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 502.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 5c | 425.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 43c | 344.53$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 6c | 337.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 31c | 322.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.84 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 50c | 298.91$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 281.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 78c | 207.07$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…3349backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 198.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 189.83$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 48c | 178.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 51c | 152$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 64c | 146$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 144.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 116.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 111.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 52c | 104.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 32c | 93.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 92.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 14c | 89.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 85.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 83.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 80.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 62.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed Yes | 63c | 61.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 44c | 55.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…729abacked Yes | 54c | 53.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 26c | 51.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 41c | 50.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 49.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 48c | 47.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 47.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 45.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 26c | 44.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 40.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 72c | 35.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 35.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 51c | 33.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…f406backed Yes | 47c | 25.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…76e8backed Yes | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 21.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…9bc6backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.