Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd76906a7a1dfd747897766bb70f146308f1e63d15f47a179f45ee83ce01a8a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 9c | 2,605$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 5c | 2,350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 28c | 689.6$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.95 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 63c | 410.15$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 312.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 42c | 273.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.98 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 69c | 256.31$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0b…5f73backed No | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 7c | 205.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 7c | 202.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 9c | 201.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721d…6b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 192.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 178$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 159.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 70c | 155.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 142.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 138.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 11c | 133.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 129.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 116.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 73c | 112.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 98.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 52c | 95.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 67c | 89.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 87.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 33c | 76.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 30c | 73.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 41c | 72.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 71.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked No | 31c | 68.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 67.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257a…5d9bbacked No | 17c | 65.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…9f45backed Yes | 31c | 58.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 50.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 24c | 50.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 46.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 46.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 30c | 38.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd51…d759backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 68c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 15.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.