TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes1c6,081$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7810447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes75c1,102$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…d8b2backed Yes25c1,040$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.096418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19a…30b0backed Yes1c1,031$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes24c814.48$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4116038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes53c765.91$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.141,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed Yes54c623.23$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.513040%12 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes16c591.02$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.815349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c556.81$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.198,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c513.6$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.565,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No75c474.74$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.852,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c460.28$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes28c426.55$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.483844.7%17 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No39c391.05$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.442,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes13c376$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No75c368.94$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No58c356.13$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.644,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No59c351.78$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.0140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes59c316.6$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.8615334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No72c313.13$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.139756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes61c312$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9722740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes8c304.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes64c303.02$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2338860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c288.75$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.523,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes77c285.37$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9236057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes77c268.74$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.422,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No49c256.95$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1328244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes36c242.84$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes17c238.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes22c231.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.391,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes21c231.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5613544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No79c223.54$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.984447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c211.19$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.346,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No72c204.63$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.451,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes28c203$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0129835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes73c199.2$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4916552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes6c175.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.117237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes27c168.53$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1953258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No20c168.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2966543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes46c168.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.842,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c167.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes43c160.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9119551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes20c158$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4226256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e04…80babacked Yes18c150.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.16349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No57c149.67$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.56,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c149$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.323,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c136.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.874,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c126.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.742,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e09…151fbacked No17c121.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+487.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes20c116.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed Yes26c116.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.296536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c115.36$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes72c113.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4833561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed No76c112.5$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86a9…9642backed Yes27c112.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes32c109.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed No25c108$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8110351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No52c107.18$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2186847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes15c101.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9643050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.927754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No77c99.33$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.255954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed No50c99.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0814638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c96.4$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a6…bdb4backed Yes78c95$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.04862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes13c93.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No59c92.62$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes46c91.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes22c91.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.615,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c85.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed No32c85.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7110345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes43c84.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.98247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No35c84.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.622,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a96…286bbacked No43c80.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.522437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+122.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes52c80.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9317956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No79c76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.914,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes58c75.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8740132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c85…b89cbacked No59c75.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.981675%12 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes19c75.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes49c75.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.853458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No66c73.88$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7741331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes27c73.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes20c72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.443959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No25c72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5415236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No73c70.55$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7418671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed No26c69.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.327159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed No35c69.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.074045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes23c65.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.454,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No24c65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.448523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes41c60.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0312052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9149…f2dabacked No62c59.51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.782885.7%24 W · 4 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+41.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes29c59.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.078650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes67c58.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6514660.3%88 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes32c57.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.311,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes21c57.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.281,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes25c53.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes26c53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6413732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No19c53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9317324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.