TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,520 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfef4…f1a8backed Yes2c1,689$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c649.67$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.264,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c508.67$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.965,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c457.89$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No43c427.99$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.812,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes6c416$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes10c413.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.882,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes52c370.36$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5138860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No69c363.87$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1811163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No68c350.69$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4977151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No51c332.41$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.65752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes56c332.31$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5835429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c308$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.854,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes36c302.49$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.353135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No78c286.33$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes16c273.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0136930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes46c272$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.153258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c256.61$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.444,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes46c251.8$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4840265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c251.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53a1…b1b0backed Yes42c249.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c238.72$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.75,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c234.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes36c232.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8113544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes31c231.85$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0740132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No80c224.95$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6122550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes15c212.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.912,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9af…7722backed Yes33c207.95$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.924228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c204.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.326,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No49c194.53$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.031,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes37c185.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8220327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No42c183.03$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9524262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No58c181.39$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1811652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes33c179.12$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9715027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes68c177.14$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c177$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.145,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c175.96$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes18c173.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4610023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes44c170.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4742849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes47c165.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8529835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed No64c145.57$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8510463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed6a…7924backed No67c144.48$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes20c143.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9748523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes70c142.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5314660.3%88 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0515…f02bbacked Yes10c141.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes33c136.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7487437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes57c135.94$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.063,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes38c133.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.63930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked Yes16c132.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0428666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c130.45$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes37c129.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.733,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a96…286bbacked Yes29c128.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.492437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+122.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No64c126.71$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.522,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes26c122.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7748919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x632e…6a56backed Yes29c121.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.354839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c120.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.84,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.753,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc6…dde3backed Yes24c114$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.363050%15 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No59c111.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes17c111.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.151,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes33c105.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.591,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes22c104.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4411983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No72c102.72$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.165054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c101.6$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.44,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes27c101.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4715334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes30c101.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2672125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.94,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1138146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a1b…e8d0backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.839,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f8…652dbacked Yes32c99.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed No49c98.48$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4811459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…5961backed Yes42c98.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.187361.6%45 W · 28 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed No72c97.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2214054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes46c94.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5924066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes19c88.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.732,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes39c85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes38c85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9112052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55bc…52d8backed No61c84.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.516839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked No48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.69548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No54c78.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.581,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes48c78.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7430665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes48c77.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1312941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes32c77.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes17c75.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5655954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c73.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.61,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes37c72.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9919022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No34c69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7715236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes48c68.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3539346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes38c68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.777945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes30c67.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.391,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes42c67.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.28650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c65.51$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.934,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes30c65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No60c64.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes29c63.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes40c62.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes33c62.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.