Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b3d96f5298a5ce797ea93b5ea45243dc9680db569df8afb3c7c8c40a158ce1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 0c | 3,320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 0c | 2,096$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 2c | 1,863$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 9c | 1,272$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 1,045$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 895$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 848.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 13c | 773.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 7c | 696.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 2c | 691.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 2c | 691$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 580.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 565.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 4c | 478.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 459.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1986backed Yes | 8c | 447.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 6c | 412.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 8c | 373.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 8c | 301.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked Yes | 10c | 299.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…2ac1backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…9c90backed Yes | 5c | 205.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 6c | 188.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 11c | 187.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 6c | 175.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 7c | 169.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 10c | 167.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 10c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 109.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.