Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5f5d4b7b71b49258567842ca1045134c0ef6bb357c9b202f89264137b8ffee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 10c | 9,264$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 12c | 4,977$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.55 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 19c | 4,220$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 10c | 2,440$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,050$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 14c | 935.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.17 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 3c | 352.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 9c | 225.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 125.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 102.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…b914backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 21c | 71.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 38.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77f…8b69backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…8853backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Graham Platner win between 65% and 70% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will Graham Platner win between 75% and 80% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Graham Platner win between 80% and 85% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.