Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e3bc04a7909f19382f73a28f31cddc5e4c92a60a0e0f5f4985b25523c79d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 10c | 5,229$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 15c | 5,210$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 8c | 2,196$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked No | 5c | 892.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked No | 12c | 817.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 597.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 30c | 224.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 222.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 204.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 74c | 104.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 30c | 73.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 20c | 71.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…1e88backed Yes | 39c | 52.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 31c | 45.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Graham Platner win between 65% and 70% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Graham Platner win between 75% and 80% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Graham Platner win between 80% and 85% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.