TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,026 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes36c25,000$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,099.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No66c24,475$16,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,136.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked No67c23,634$15,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,80010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes33c22,060$7,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,698.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Yes34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes60c19,041$11,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,616.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed No41c18,473$7,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,573.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…11f1backed No66c15,213$10,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,01040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Yes34c15,179$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,966.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533c…2658backed Yes41c11,704$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,933.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Yes37c11,149$4,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,001.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec7…03efbacked Yes65c11,095$7,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked No63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c2…b7c8backed Yes57c8,837$5,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Yes70c8,550$6,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes61c8,310$5,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,276.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d76…00d5backed Yes61c8,114$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb936…7c57backed No66c7,396$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,877.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed No64c6,658$4,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No21c4,042$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8373…7b8ebacked No66c3,939$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Yes61c3,652$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Yes33c3,555$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+202.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x217f…8fb5backed Yes36c3,472$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,222.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a5f…6c92backed Yes36c3,404$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66f9…e79abacked No41c3,035$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3c…e7cbbacked Yes59c3,032$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Yes34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9801100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No42c2,792$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes35c2,746$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed Yes40c2,612$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x592e…4b29backed No41c2,500$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc1…661fbacked No67c2,299$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Yes35c2,186$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+189.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No23c2,135$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb003…97e1backed No38c2,000$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c1,917$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No65c1,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No64c1,441$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No65c1,440$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No39c1,350$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No65c1,159$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No47c1,100$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51670%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa161…86fdbacked Yes61c1,079$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed No39c1,037$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No39c1,000$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed No63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No49c911.18$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-54.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No27c903.39$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No63c800$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No30c732.42$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No66c700$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae37…4888backed Yes44c700$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6870…5826backed Yes36c664.54$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+54.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No46c658$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50a0…440cbacked No65c627.77$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes40c619.42$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1322…d7b8backed No65c615.38$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No40c600$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked No41c595$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No35c576.62$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No65c550.73$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes31c545$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.71156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-78.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x227a…a09abacked No10c536.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f8…b824backed Yes59c529.57$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed No64c493.99$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes34c485.4$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa60…52d9backed Yes61c471.62$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c417.6$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe30…87cabacked Yes57c410$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Yes60c402.99$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e51…7538backed No65c369.98$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes60c365.27$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c361.6$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed Yes57c352.52$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f1f…57c1backed Yes61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No51c316$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf97…4653backed Yes31c311.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked No40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed No65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f87…e128backed Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+127%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No5c282$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed No47c274.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No33c273.92$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c270$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…c76dbacked No65c261.54$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c255.44$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.25875%6 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+73.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12b8…d22fbacked Yes55c254.39$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c242$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…e27abacked Yes37c240$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked Yes35c239.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes39c238.68$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No31c225.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1d…c700backed Yes39c220.92$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No20c215$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6665…d1efbacked Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.