Poker · resolved market
Will Michael Gagliano Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31fe7d503551ce86e0864b29b2014ca055b4bc70c1cd12334dc55df738297611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7279…11f1backed Yes | 11c | 11,085$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…6c92backed Yes | 11c | 4,995$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 15c | 4,924$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc1…661fbacked Yes | 13c | 3,821$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Yes | 12c | 1,272$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…fac2backed Yes | 13c | 796.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…b7c8backed Yes | 13c | 754.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 480$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…55d4backed Yes | 13c | 354.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 13c | 343.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Yes | 13c | 319$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 14c | 299.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 11c | 216.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6665…d1efbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…4c11backed Yes | 12c | 161.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 13c | 115.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes | 12c | 103.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 16c | 99.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Gagliano Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?this page
- Will Evagoras Evagorou Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Greg Mueller Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Han Feng Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Jamie Shaevel Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?Yes won
- Will Mario Boos Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Rami Hammoud Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.