Poker · resolved market
Will Greg Mueller Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1920dd37a3415fc128a0436a344bd195216b1aa690c536755da91fc550e46b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Yes | 10c | 4,810$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes | 13c | 2,503$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Yes | 12c | 1,653$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,449$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1322…d7b8backed Yes | 12c | 746.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 8c | 699.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9e…b513backed Yes | 9c | 288.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…6c92backed Yes | 10c | 260.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 11c | 216.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…de45backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greg Mueller Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?this page
- Will Evagoras Evagorou Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Han Feng Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Jamie Shaevel Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?Yes won
- Will Mario Boos Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Michael Gagliano Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Rami Hammoud Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.