Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab44b92c5a52879e003f73fa2d364a0baeb7a60725c5d9ac25a6aa117de7b94b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 27c | 424.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 379.65$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.18 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 263.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 51c | 239.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 66c | 228.68$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 218$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 76c | 210.31$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 200.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 18c | 196.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 65c | 194.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…898ebacked Yes | 53c | 181$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 19c | 161.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 65c | 153.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 143.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 136.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 40c | 132.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 52c | 122.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 116.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 109.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 107.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 106.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 101.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 12c | 93.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 91.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 86.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 85.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 82.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 76.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 27c | 71.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 42c | 71.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 69.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 37c | 67.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 67.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 24c | 59.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 23c | 50.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 49.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…5843backed No | 64c | 44.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Yes | 23c | 43.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 39.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 46c | 36.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…58d3backed No | 77c | 35.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 32.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked No | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 29.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 27.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 59c | 20.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 14.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.