Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eafcf7b5425d0e4e9bb52d0173a6fdb585251be38ad2d4b9d3d7f6bbd66f9bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 302.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 245$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 237.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 184.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 18c | 173.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 163.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 25c | 145.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 10c | 133.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 13c | 132.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 122.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 20c | 102.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 94.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 93.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 37c | 86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 82.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 81.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 71.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…898ebacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 67.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 65.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 58.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 55.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 54.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 22c | 47.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 41.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 34.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 77c | 33.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 71c | 30.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 35c | 29.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 29.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 38c | 27.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 27.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 76c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.