Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9741f18f3b96293baf7bb224cefef9640d2250bbc500abcccb4dd451ac140253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 55c | 385.42$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.72 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 266.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 44c | 257.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…898ebacked Yes | 44c | 245.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 56c | 221.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 48c | 207.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 188.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 187.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 64c | 140.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 48c | 136.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 49c | 133.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 57c | 88.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 87.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 81.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 46c | 78.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 72.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 67.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 67.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 63c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 60.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 36c | 56.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…5843backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 49.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 49.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 48.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 60c | 41.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 33c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 45c | 37.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 37.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 35.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 34.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 51c | 33.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…51cdbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 42c | 28.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 26.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 58c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 55c | 18.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.