Valorant · resolved market
Will Shopify Rebellion Black Win North America ACE Stage 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x283e6a9c2cc557ef5155d056d8f08138c274b7c65f1f4a87b56725ba563f84c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1940…0ea1backed No | 64c | 1,632$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.91 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 32c | 1,259$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked Yes | 24c | 597.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 41c | 574.5$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed Yes | 33c | 317.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 22c | 208.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 189$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…e72fbacked No | 21c | 188.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +367.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Yes | 13c | 156.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…9aa0backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 135$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c0…2b7fbacked Yes | 33c | 121.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…dbc2backed Yes | 33c | 120.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 40c | 105.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…3699backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 90.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 81.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc127…e40cbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 60c | 54.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…cdc5backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…b84abacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 32c | 45.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…e027backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…582bbacked Yes | 35c | 31.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 39c | 27.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 61c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shopify Rebellion Black Win North America ACE Stage 3this page
- Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Azure Dragon Gaming Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Evil Geniuses Academy Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3Yes won
- Will Nightblood Gaming Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will QoR Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will SaD Esports Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.