Valorant · resolved market
Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc15862bc91e2ab887fa6c002543d13d497ff1cd9e4782a5914a1ca9306b8b325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1940…0ea1backed No | 40c | 4,733$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.37 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 68c | 1,181$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 40c | 935.81$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.04 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked No | 57c | 650$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 602.56$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.13 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5588…2a46backed Yes | 49c | 466$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 48c | 440$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 68c | 379.06$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 64c | 366.61$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 309.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 55c | 303.17$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac77…4009backed Yes | 52c | 259.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 217$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 70c | 205.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 48c | 205$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…93edbacked Yes | 37c | 204.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…e45abacked Yes | 67c | 202.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…9aa0backed Yes | 68c | 177.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 173.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 31cpaid | +295.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed No | 57c | 159.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 47c | 129.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 53c | 128.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 59c | 122.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…2435backed Yes | 41c | 114$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…c7debacked No | 78c | 112.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 49c | 108.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 53c | 103.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 49cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae11…2d01backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41d…ebd5backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 80.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 25c | 75.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 73.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…ffcbbacked Yes | 45c | 66.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…fc34backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 46c | 52.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…1cc8backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 51cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…e1bebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…e291backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…c3b1backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed Yes | 71c | 47.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…cdc5backed No | 79c | 45.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…a99abacked No | 59c | 44.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 55c | 44.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Yes | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232d…da84backed Yes | 48c | 40.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…77c4backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…04e3backed Yes | 52c | 30.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…82f5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…e414backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…bd5abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3this page
- Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Azure Dragon Gaming Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Evil Geniuses Academy Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Nightblood Gaming Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will QoR Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will SaD Esports Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
- Will Shopify Rebellion Black Win North America ACE Stage 3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.