UFC · resolved market
Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1805d8caffd2455466425a91d2f38df536a9285570760916cebdf0306109fb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,920$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,783$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,709$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,629$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Yes | 10c | 1,498$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…33efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,490$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…f944backed No | 75c | 898.66$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 2c | 839.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed Yes | 25c | 801.83$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 8c | 672.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…5bfabacked Yes | 20c | 655.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 634.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 11c | 547.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 24c | 436.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…7a07backed Yes | 24c | 421.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…3150backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 15c | 400$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked Yes | 21c | 369.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…2698backed Yes | 16c | 262.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…7ebcbacked Yes | 18c | 261.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5412…f86fbacked Yes | 21c | 239.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 63c | 196.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe355…7625backed Yes | 6c | 169.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…6c95backed No | 77c | 166.71$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 70c | 166.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Yes | 23c | 164.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd59…0a77backed Yes | 13c | 148.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 34c | 146.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 33c | 125.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 72c | 123.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 21c | 120.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcedd…d35ebacked Yes | 18c | 112.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 78c | 109.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…004ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…e61ebacked Yes | 16c | 83.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…4aedbacked Yes | 24c | 82.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…fae1backed Yes | 20c | 81.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…65bdbacked Yes | 47c | 80.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…3136backed Yes | 21c | 71.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked No | 79c | 70.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53dc…98a1backed No | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 67c | 68.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…6d63backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…0e07backed Yes | 36c | 55.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee7b…f843backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…5e86backed Yes | 20c | 51.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…e491backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 65c | 41.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…cbcfbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…cd58backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…f0f7backed Yes | 29c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7258…4fb7backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 79c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 60c | 22.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 73c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…17aabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 68c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.