TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eaglesof Eagles, Buccaneers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,404,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,465,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,404,557 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 450 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Buccaneers36c150,000$54,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,0003259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Eagles64c145,274$93,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,796.0944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Buccaneers36c140,000$50,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,399.9731240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Buccaneers12c116,125$13,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,516.2310333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Eagles64c96,231$61,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,643.1212352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Eagles64c94,108$60,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,913.1810566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Buccaneers39c80,944$31,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,363.771957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Buccaneers35c73,512$25,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,772.8122950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Buccaneers28c69,930$19,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,480.7147738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Buccaneers36c36,872$13,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,308.7553348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Buccaneers36c34,474$12,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,410.7816836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Buccaneers7c30,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.9618435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Eagles64c28,255$18,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,171.7624652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Eagles61c23,466$14,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,151.6122548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Eagles64c21,151$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,650.3741851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Eagles64c20,000$12,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.995236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Buccaneers35c20,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.9930743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Eagles64c19,999$12,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.6314351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Buccaneers14c18,292$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,645.043948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Eagles65c17,828$11,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,327.9811649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Eagles63c10,600$6,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,921.933863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Eagles61c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90024551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Buccaneers10c9,734$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.3720634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Buccaneers36c8,888$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.6514248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Eagles66c6,915$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.6364747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles62c6,876$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,613.0683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Buccaneers17c6,202$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.7630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d75…74a5backed Eagles65c6,154$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.851040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Buccaneers37c6,075$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.7428447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa408…06ffbacked Buccaneers15c5,841$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Buccaneers34c5,773$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.5861148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Eagles61c5,162$3,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.5927348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Buccaneers17c5,147$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8755549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Eagles65c5,089$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.428247.6%39 W · 43 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Buccaneers38c5,047$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.9583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Eagles65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75029356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf507…b7d1backed Buccaneers37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+75.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49ee…7afebacked Buccaneers36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Buccaneers6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66d1…f3a9backed Eagles65c4,652$3,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.91450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Buccaneers2c4,473$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3418245.6%83 W · 99 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Eagles64c4,375$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5754365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Buccaneers36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd7…7098backed Eagles65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Eagles60c3,176$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.163256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Eagles66c3,043$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.4218650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Buccaneers37c3,021$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.5114951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d0…87ccbacked Buccaneers37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+78%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…4ec7backed Eagles65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a5…5877backed Eagles65c2,900$1,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14f…d518backed Buccaneers36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba3…16babacked Eagles66c2,738$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.09540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eec…3e48backed Buccaneers11c2,534$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.374052.5%21 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Buccaneers20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500140%0 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47c8…f6e0backed Eagles65c2,500$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb88a…3e55backed Eagles65c2,500$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Eagles64c2,500$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90014445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Buccaneers35c2,300$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.9914148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Eagles61c2,152$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.141,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Eagles63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Eagles63c2,000$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.1710552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Buccaneers9c1,987$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1875844.8%26 W · 32 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Buccaneers1c1,950$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31013%3 W · 98 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Buccaneers5c1,866$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Buccaneers1c1,850$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.124311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Eagles63c1,806$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.6331854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f78…7954backed Eagles65c1,700$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fe…2d2dbacked Eagles62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.91963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Buccaneers9c1,600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Buccaneers35c1,567$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.3832050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637a…6d23backed Eagles64c1,565$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.42458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…4fdcbacked Eagles65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.461163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Eagles65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.4614763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Buccaneers36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54019543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Eagles61c1,500$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5794551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c4…7ef8backed Eagles65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6fcebacked Buccaneers36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Eagles64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5402653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Eagles62c1,500$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.9919645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Buccaneers36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.983452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Buccaneers37c1,497$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.1524054.6%131 W · 109 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Buccaneers37c1,465$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.6413450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Buccaneers35c1,464$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.0919551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f44…4a46backed Buccaneers12c1,439$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.62650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+137.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Eagles64c1,406$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.258938.2%34 W · 55 L-10.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd4d1…54fbbacked Buccaneers36c1,400$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Buccaneers23c1,391$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31916344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Buccaneers36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Buccaneers36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Buccaneers36c1,374$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd0…4e15backed Buccaneers37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Buccaneers37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f8b…754fbacked Buccaneers36c1,348$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Buccaneers36c1,249$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.7520039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Buccaneers35c1,200$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4204422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Buccaneers3c1,178$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.221969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Eagles64c1,171$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.5637350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Buccaneers36c1,097$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7318140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed Eagles78c1,085$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.574533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Buccaneers3c1,075$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6631032.6%101 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.