AI · resolved market
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 achieve a successful splashdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fadcf2064b54fa2b6a2d8a51c7d0f3998d7dc019834543ac34fcd2aadb7f1e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 31c | 3,044$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.73 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 69c | 2,899$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.55 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed No | 31c | 824.73$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 68c | 789.43$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 69c | 720.59$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…45c0backed No | 31c | 611.92$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed No | 10c | 484.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…d87fbacked Yes | 71c | 470$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 62c | 411$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.07 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 28c | 309.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 282.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…7457backed Yes | 74c | 211.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47d…d63dbacked Yes | 69c | 211.28$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 198$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 69c | 145.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 72c | 138.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 33c | 130.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 32c | 127.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 70c | 121$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x039f…1798backed Yes | 71c | 83.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 66c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 77.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…9b09backed No | 34c | 70.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 66c | 65.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 68c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked No | 33c | 61.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…1576backed Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No | 35c | 34.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked Yes | 65c | 32.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…5a99backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…d934backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 achieve a successful splashdown?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 15?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by September 30?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.