AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1aad741a2fe1c59f3e56161ba736e557d0c9cecb7dc1726163cf539cde5934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 16c | 2,440$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.43 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 27c | 683$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.72 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 45c | 672.14$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.93 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 75c | 618.02$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 550.37$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 63c | 437.57$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 71c | 425.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 74c | 402.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 355.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…4775backed No | 33c | 293.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed Yes | 79c | 280.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +1,240.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 75c | 251.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 19c | 249.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 29c | 200.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 198$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 28c | 188.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 23c | 164$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…2abebacked No | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked No | 21c | 140.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 28c | 123.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 32c | 116.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…e00fbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 98.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 90.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 82.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 81.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1848backed No | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…9e4fbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 68c | 45.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 71c | 44.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a5…e400backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 50c | 31.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…51a3backed No | 37c | 31.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b7…d01dbacked No | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3d81backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…c29abacked Yes | 65c | 24.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…0adbbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…1576backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 15?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by September 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.