AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy explode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdb9672a6dc2a0247b00616dc8113a0e91277e1ce65163609f5eda7017e77a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb5a…8008backed No | 17c | 12,411$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +232.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed No | 8c | 4,700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 73c | 3,464$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.07 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 23c | 2,428$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 5c | 2,002$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,357$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 75c | 1,190$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked No | 7c | 672.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 488.76$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 400.24$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 24c | 372.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 320.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 303$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No | 4c | 261.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…5a99backed No | 11c | 236.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…5262backed No | 7c | 206.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 11c | 184.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 182.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 148.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 143.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 142.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 127.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 21c | 122.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 55c | 110.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 39c | 100.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e55…97e7backed No | 15c | 69.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…24f8backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c42…d89abacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 72c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 64c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy explode?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 15?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by September 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.