Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12389950d7fdcdfc4892aa4b81b7ef8f16aaabefc82d62f4a7d3180feed7117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 5,528$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 9c | 2,981$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 3c | 2,834$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 17c | 1,900$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 978.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 688.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 442.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 406.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 389.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 13c | 384.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 78c | 283.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 196.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 22c | 194.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…a125backed No | 80c | 159.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 17c | 149$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 13c | 138.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 113.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8f22backed Yes | 13c | 110.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…07cabacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…2e5bbacked No | 78c | 90.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…887abacked No | 77c | 86.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 31c | 76.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…7295backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed No | 73c | 74.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1989…2370backed Yes | 16c | 72.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 71.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…5a4cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 18c | 59.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…ad74backed Yes | 22c | 59.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 21c | 55.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 53.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 77c | 45.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…dee4backed No | 77c | 38.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?this page
- Will Andrew Shelley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Yes won
- Will Mike Faris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Wende Kennedy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.