Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x060e72bc4bb6b08e29d1ed0ec3a3fd348dc0aa5e2dd1d162cfb076005582f2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 1c | 7,935$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 3c | 3,438$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 18c | 861.55$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 6c | 413.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 302$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 32c | 287.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 66c | 286$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 252.08$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…008ebacked Yes | 48c | 208.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 26c | 203.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 37c | 197$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 36c | 189$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 7c | 170.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…2101backed Yes | 35c | 159.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 26c | 156.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 152$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…e7e6backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 25c | 108.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…7281backed Yes | 36c | 100.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed No | 61c | 99.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 32c | 99.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 65c | 92.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 26c | 87.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 83.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 75.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 70.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…7295backed Yes | 36c | 65.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 65c | 50.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…9fe4backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…05e7backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed Yes | 35c | 47.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked No | 64c | 46.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 64c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 36c | 42.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae15…5b25backed Yes | 36c | 41.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4615…07d9backed Yes | 37c | 41.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…51c8backed Yes | 35c | 37.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…6c95backed Yes | 41c | 36.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 63c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 77c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…10fbbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 65c | 26.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 61c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 66c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?this page
- Will Andrew Shelley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Yes won
- Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Mike Faris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Wende Kennedy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.