Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with ≥2 dissents?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd1b437fc586c051da011ab0668b6f511e6859e1206b5b76460f6061b7aa472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 1,957$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.54 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 49c | 1,877$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.71 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 44c | 800$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 46c | 437.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.08 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 55c | 361.92$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 45c | 323.17$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 305.89$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 164.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 113.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…66a2backed Yes | 54c | 111.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Yes | 54c | 69.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…d344backed Yes | 58c | 66.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 65.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…18b3backed Yes | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 46c | 58.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 46c | 54.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…c243backed Yes | 48c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 57c | 40.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4904…65f2backed Yes | 54c | 36.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 50c | 30.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 45c | 29.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Yes | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with ≥2 dissents?this page
- Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with ≥2 dissents?No won
- Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in any other outcome?No won
- Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with <2 dissents?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.