NFL · resolved market
Will the Green Bay Packers win 10 or more regular season games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc055aaca2a068a11befeb995629032c9c4056dfa5efef51bacc4698295d5a3ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 38c | 1,875$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.51 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 66c | 1,700$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 53c | 1,665$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.22 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…bbd8backed Yes | 37c | 237$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…803dbacked Yes | 37c | 198$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…c931backed Yes | 20c | 189$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a7…0f82backed Yes | 20c | 149$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…4db6backed Yes | 20c | 131$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…43e5backed Yes | 26c | 119$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…1d70backed Yes | 20c | 117$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 24c | 116.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b8…e928backed Yes | 20c | 114$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked No | 33c | 110.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc83a…a88abacked Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x075f…19c4backed Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…cc52backed No | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…a917backed Yes | 38c | 71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…538dbacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…0773backed No | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…d09abacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…056bbacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…26f3backed Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4764…2970backed Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…6bbebacked No | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…31d5backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…8534backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c8…98f9backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5613…3f33backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc11…6e40backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…d279backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d9…8b62backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483c…0b5dbacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…7952backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c0…f894backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…d4c1backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…2a3cbacked No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefb…c6e9backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcf…d3b8backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa814…49c4backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ae…9409backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553c…5163backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a7…87dabacked No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…2174backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…aedfbacked No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…8286backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd8…7939backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3253…f3c9backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…c3cebacked No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f8…63cabacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…55e0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8be…43fbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…adccbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e1…23a2backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…8af5backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bb…cfecbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…4e4fbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb42…056bbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…2e26backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfc…1390backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Green Bay Packers win 10 or more regular season games?this page
- Will the Arizona Cardinals win 9 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win 12 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills win 13 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Chicago Bears win 9 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals win 10 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win 9 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Denver Broncos win 10 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Detroit Lions win 11 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Houston Texans win 10 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Indianapolis Colts win 8 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win 8 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win 12 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win 10 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Miami Dolphins win 8 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Minnesota Vikings win 10 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the New England Patriots win 9 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the New Orleans Saints win 6 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the New York Giants win 6 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win 12 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win 9 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win 11 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win 9 or more regular season games?Yes won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win 10 or more regular season games?No won
- Will the Tennessee Titans win 7 or more regular season games?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.