TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Miami Dolphins win 8 or more regular season games?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,123 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e3d…f254backed Yes17c259$44 inLost-$44.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc584…ca57backed Yes15c194$29 inLost-$29.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes22c174.09$38 inLost-$38.313430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5410…b08ebacked Yes15c116$17 inLost-$17.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb04…2931backed Yes17c114$19 inLost-$19.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9b…8398backed Yes15c110$17 inLost-$16.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…1fd3backed Yes15c108$16 inLost-$16.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No75c104.09$78 inWon+$26.0641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7d…631dbacked Yes17c99$17 inLost-$16.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…6143backed Yes15c97$15 inLost-$14.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf95…e114backed Yes15c91$14 inLost-$13.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d8…17f5backed Yes17c72$12 inLost-$12.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c70$55 inWon+$15.431439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a4…2611backed Yes15c69$10 inLost-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked No78c64.09$50 inWon+$14.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea9…3b34backed Yes17c62$11 inLost-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9824…066ebacked Yes17c61$10 inLost-$10.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes50c60$30 inLost-$3055345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No78c40$31 inWon+$8.88037.5%30 W · 50 L-10.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd9a3…83bdbacked No50c40$20 inWon+$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61e2…d2f3backed No50c20$10 inWon+$102458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+51.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1574…bfd9backed Yes50c20$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.