NFL · resolved market

Will the Baltimore Ravens win 12 or more regular season games?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe09b4013240572145d2fc0f69d9792cbb2096092ef55ba1b50051307fe5c6db

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,738 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes	56c	4,585$2,582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,582.08	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	34cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed No	44c	3,000$1,330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,670	78	33.3%26 W · 52 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked No	40c	2,794$1,118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,676.39	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No	49c	1,516$738 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$778.32	224	34.4%77 W · 147 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	41c	1,350$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$792	415	40.2%167 W · 248 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked No	46c	392$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.68	143	66.4%95 W · 48 L	+13.0wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe747…bcacbacked Yes	39c	252.76$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.36	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Yes	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	290	59.7%173 W · 117 L	+14.4wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes	55c	141$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.55	243	51.4%125 W · 118 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	36c	106$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.43	323	47.4%153 W · 170 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No	49c	105$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.55	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	51c	105$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.55	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	-10.4wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	63c	50$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	143	42%60 W · 83 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No	41c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.7	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No	41c	26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.34	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Baltimore Ravens win 12 or more regular season games?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event