TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,109 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes51c24,643$12,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,101.37749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No40c9,010$3,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,587.96378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes53c4,578$2,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,171.33243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No49c3,153$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.6621033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes63c2,963$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.931376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No22c2,248$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.059035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes63c2,000$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7424443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No51c1,753$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.1322833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes13c1,730$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.3714356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes14c1,608$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.8413919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c1,583$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.0433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c1,409$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.4518237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No75c1,387$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.3711522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes14c1,319$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.657448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes18c1,223$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.8222848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No56c1,149$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.278149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0778…73d1backed Yes14c1,114$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.523030%9 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes62c1,083$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.951450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No73c1,025$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.5818041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No41c963.47$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8214729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes12c900$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.332528%7 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No35c875.52$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2313143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No3c869.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.746132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes20c752.58$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.4234333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No46c684.39$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8510739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c646.31$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.91823.8%7 W · 175 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes51c640.58$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.483928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes19c633.11$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.14953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No23c586.54$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.92657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No42c585$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2913625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No23c499.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.978740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes13c497.38$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.4524433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed Yes56c475.45$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.592369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x936e…473fbacked Yes17c475.06$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+68.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c463.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.7449411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No46c421$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.673751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed No10c413.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.262536%9 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No57c399$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.325137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…4f3ebacked Yes60c371.47$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No52c353.19$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.294841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c315.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.991042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c314.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.89816.2%5 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked No51c300$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c292$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1312545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No66c288.42$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8913546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No63c272.83$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7710361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes45c214.47$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.488757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed Yes11c207.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.532416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes26c207$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.76825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No55c203.02$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.113834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.89326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36dd…bfccbacked Yes51c194.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.361471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+80.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed Yes57c187.33$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.312751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No60c179.63$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.21729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No39c173.36$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.643941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No51c173$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.716036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd65…927fbacked Yes45c172.38$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No54c167$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.896336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Yes47c159.24$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.241050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes13c156.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.312725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes15c156.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.628741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes15c152.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.719643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4590…c7e4backed Yes13c148.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.76887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+108.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes20c147.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+263.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b09…d2cebacked Yes56c137.8$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+55.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c137.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.683910.3%4 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x509f…c594backed Yes16c125$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa71d…29f0backed Yes53c122.13$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No71c117.93$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4766914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes24c111$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.431040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes12c108.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.477339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes12c106.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.812626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c102.2$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0110947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.15637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c99.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5317140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes14c85.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2916020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked No54c75.39$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-76.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No39c54.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.157451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-41.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13531.4%11 W · 24 L-6.7wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-51.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8e42…a043backed Yes52c46.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.211315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec4…30b5backed Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes42c39.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.351384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed No63c39.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes55c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes52c36.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes59c35.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.464100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No80c35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcac8…f4eabacked Yes59c33.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04f…69ddbacked Yes58c30.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa937…4152backed Yes46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3344…56c4backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No43c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.382326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.