TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$429,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,788 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd64e…5516backed No5c5,350$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.251241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…a9a5backed No6c3,992$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89c…7b9bbacked No6c3,864$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8b…92e0backed No6c3,608$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc144…f7bfbacked No6c3,485$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b55…a6a4backed No6c3,384$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a9…5626backed No6c2,973$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd40…27a1backed No6c2,890$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5d0…a9febacked No6c2,711$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd7…aacebacked No6c2,581$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528a…cea5backed No6c2,579$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b0…0326backed No6c2,541$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491c…56d4backed No6c2,483$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…66b9backed No6c2,376$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a3…d25bbacked No6c2,354$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb5…ff48backed No6c2,349$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ed…24d6backed No6c2,311$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be6…695ebacked No7c2,199$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b76…acaabacked No7c2,174$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0965…9ab9backed No6c2,159$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6755…2af0backed No7c2,140$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d6…36babacked No6c2,105$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34e…0e59backed No6c2,104$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c8…cad4backed No7c2,092$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…1dc7backed No7c2,069$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee69…c727backed No6c2,035$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba0…09febacked No7c1,951$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9430…6780backed No6c1,934$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdc8…c605backed No6c1,878$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe623…93fdbacked No6c1,855$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c9…8ab7backed No7c1,827$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7adb…cbe2backed No6c1,808$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cca…cf66backed No7c1,790$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de9…4d20backed No7c1,736$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d0…52ddbacked No7c1,732$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd0…a29ebacked No6c1,680$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0b…1ac1backed No7c1,664$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb758…7dd6backed No6c1,627$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598c…363abacked No6c1,585$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd8b…4ccebacked No6c1,572$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281f…bb00backed No6c1,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5400…2a64backed No6c1,554$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c5…f1e7backed No6c1,553$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…5159backed No6c1,548$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c1,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b8…459fbacked No6c1,485$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2217…f689backed No6c1,483$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279d…c12ebacked No6c1,442$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5154…245dbacked No5c1,420$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f5…704cbacked No7c1,393$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad80…73f1backed No6c1,391$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0913…a5d6backed No7c1,365$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e58…a3d2backed No7c1,362$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb14d…6a54backed No7c1,344$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No17c1,343$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2627222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab5c…63b7backed No6c1,319$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…8ec7backed No6c1,309$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd65b…b7dcbacked No7c1,281$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc33…6a45backed No6c1,276$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeaa…82b0backed No6c1,256$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0032…fef9backed No6c1,233$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f17…8394backed No6c1,209$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea96…9952backed No6c1,188$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2e…c7ebbacked No3c1,151$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343c…06f1backed No6c1,147$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8d…01d7backed No6c1,140$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5a…5e87backed No7c1,105$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7155…4dd0backed No6c1,104$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdafa…e874backed No6c1,100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…396abacked No6c1,073$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d1…9a21backed No6c1,062$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…f53bbacked No6c1,018$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a30…ad99backed No6c1,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c2…1079backed No6c954$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No9c944.56$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.042520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…cf77backed No6c941$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c1…66c8backed No7c938$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc973…5d9dbacked No8c933$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f66…e352backed No6c925$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3306…c537backed No6c921$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea0…6bddbacked No6c903$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a5…36f3backed No6c889$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a37…91c9backed No6c884$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1200…b626backed No6c861$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2b…d276backed No7c852$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2e…391ebacked No6c848$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb0f…4b9dbacked No7c848$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc87d…fe13backed No6c821$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b41…954bbacked No6c811$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd59f…8e24backed No6c807$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No6c769.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5821155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e0…3972backed No6c763$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c30…3248backed No6c689$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ae…c0b9backed No6c684$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2567…7632backed No6c680$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f2…ec38backed No6c679$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0149…c177backed No6c625$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd07c…e4e0backed No7c615$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1474…f1d1backed No3c612$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Yes79c600$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+22.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.