Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and lose the 2026 Texas Senate General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40691142a007f0bfe25d168b38b49c68c9da478d4d90f3c25fb94954938b0e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 21c | 861.49$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.18 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 30c | 750.33$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 35c | 724.67$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 23c | 679.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.05 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 64c | 543.17$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 64c | 511$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed Yes | 36c | 497$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 23c | 475.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 430.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 30c | 388.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 27c | 350$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 71c | 235$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 196.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 7c | 177.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 25c | 135.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 30c | 132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 129.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 76c | 118.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 30c | 98.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 26c | 66.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…fc0abacked Yes | 20c | 64.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…8db7backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf450…38e4backed Yes | 27c | 55.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…7bf1backed Yes | 29c | 50.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 23c | 44.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 43.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…13f8backed Yes | 27c | 39.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 37.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 30.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…0479backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 20.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and lose the 2026 Texas Senate General Election?this page
- Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election?Yes won
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.