NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16eb5c72e2ec81f467a84c078a9daeea27f7a55d4e0884287b3a289a6ceb3d47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Celtics, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 51c | 11,057$5,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,366.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics | 46c | 6,433$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.34 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Celtics | 53c | 1,886$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 50c | 1,317$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics | 55c | 1,250$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.26 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 47c | 1,033$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.51 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Celtics | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 44c | 826.22$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 47c | 606.82$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.62 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Celtics | 57c | 376$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Celtics | 51c | 360.78$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Celtics | 54c | 335.31$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Celtics | 56c | 330.36$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Clippers | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 46c | 272.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 44c | 262.19$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Celtics | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Celtics | 54c | 154.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…7d7ebacked Celtics | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Clippers | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…a2edbacked Clippers | 48c | 139.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Celtics | 40c | 122.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Celtics | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…ec5ebacked Celtics | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 44c | 93.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Celtics | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Celtics | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Celtics | 56c | 85.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Celtics | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Clippers | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Celtics | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…b9f8backed Celtics | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Clippers | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Clippers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…7bb9backed Clippers | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…e403backed Clippers | 46c | 31.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers | 44c | 28.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…7dfcbacked Celtics | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…db64backed Celtics | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)this page
- Clippers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.