NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b70b25358503f25946f9bdb2e8026b29aca6806ad406bdb3a2c86efc42a9e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Celtics, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Clippers | 41c | 1,211$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.48 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 41c | 1,058$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Celtics | 58c | 930.33$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.59 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Celtics | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Celtics | 59c | 398.56$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.15 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Clippers | 41c | 349$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Celtics | 59c | 237.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 43c | 60.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Celtics | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Celtics | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Celtics | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Celtics | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Celtics | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)this page
- Clippers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.